Derived-values-only AI layer

Market stays warm with cautious optimism

The market is currently in a warm phase with strong positive signals. Most sectors are performing well, volatility is low, and credit conditions are stable. However, inflation remains a concern and mixed rate data adds some uncertainty.

84.5

Current Read

Warm

5-Day Up

85.7%

21-Day Up

81.3%

21-Day Middle

1.78%

What Supports The Read

  • Recent 21-day price action is positive
  • Most sector ETFs above 50-day averages
  • Volatility is contained
  • Credit holds up versus Treasuries

What Could Weaken It

  • Inflation is still hot
  • Rate pressure is mixed
  • Job data is steady

Visual Breakdown

Probability Gauges

5-day up
85.7
21-day up
81.3
Thermometer
84.5

Scenario Weights

Risk On
66.6
Chop
13.0
Rotation
9.5
Risk Off
9.2
Panic
1.7

Leadership

QQQ
88.0
XLK
87.8
USO
84.8
EEM
84.6
IWM
84.0
VTI
83.7
VEA
76.4
DIA
72.9

Player Pressure

Long Funds
+0.73
Trend Funds
+0.65
Hedge Funds
+0.45
Retail Crowd
+0.44
Credit
+0.39
Insiders
+0.26

What To Watch Next

Confidence is moderate with 48% evidence support