Derived-values-only AI layer

Market stays warm with strong positive momentum

The market is currently in a warm phase with strong positive momentum. Most sectors are above their 50-day averages, volatility is contained, and credit is holding up versus Treasuries. The thermometer shows 85.5, indicating a generally positive outlook with a 82.9% chance of rising prices in the next 21 days.

85.5

Current Read

Warm

5-Day Up

87.3%

21-Day Up

82.9%

21-Day Middle

1.79%

What Supports The Read

  • Recent 21-day price action is positive
  • Most sector ETFs are above their 50-day averages
  • Volatility is contained
  • Credit is holding up versus Treasuries

What Could Weaken It

  • Inflation is still hot
  • Rate pressure is mixed
  • Job data is steady

Visual Breakdown

Probability Gauges

5-day up
87.3
21-day up
82.9
Thermometer
85.5

Scenario Weights

Risk On
67.3
Chop
12.9
Risk Off
9.1
Rotation
8.9
Panic
1.8

Leadership

QQQ
88.6
XLK
88.3
EEM
85.9
VTI
84.8
USO
85.2
IWM
84.5
VEA
77.9
DIA
74.5

Player Pressure

Long Funds
+0.78
Trend Funds
+0.69
Hedge Funds
+0.46
Credit
+0.45
Retail Crowd
+0.44
Insiders
+0.21

What To Watch Next

Confidence is moderate (0.39) with strong consensus on risk-on direction